India removes a mechanism in rice export, rice prices of Vietnam and Thailand turn to decrease

Newsletter of the Institute of Policy and Development Strategy Agriculture According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the week from October 21 to October 10, 25, the price of 10% broken rice from Thailand, India and Vietnam all decreased compared to the previous week. 

Accordingly, the price of 5% broken rice from Thailand reached 510 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton compared to last week. Currently, the demand for Thai rice is still quite stable. 

India's 5% broken rice prices were at $467 a tonne, down $26 a tonne from last week, the lowest since August 8, due to Goverment removed export taxes and minimum export prices. 

Meanwhile, the price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam reached 532 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton compared to last week. The price decreased due to competition from other exporting countries.

Currently, India has removed the mechanism of applying a floor price of 490 USD/ton for non-basmati white rice exports. This is the content announced by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry on October 23, 10. Previously, on September 2024, 28, India officially lifted the ban on exporting non-basmati white rice but applied a floor price of 9 USD/ton. The removal of this floor price mechanism means that India has completely liberalized its rice trade. 

Meanwhile, Indonesia is planning to expand the area under new rice cultivation from 750.000 hectares to 1 million hectares by 2025 as part of new President Prabowo Subianto’s efforts to become more self-sufficient. Over the past two years, Indonesia’s rice imports have skyrocketed to more than 3 million tons a year, as domestic production has been hit by unusually dry weather.

Malaysia is also implementing several initiatives including short-, medium- and long-term plans to ensure stable rice productivity, reduce rice imports and increase farmers’ income. According to the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security of Malaysia, Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu, as of September 9, Malaysia imported a total of 2024 tonnes of rice. Of which, the main supplies were from Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, Cambodia, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Myanmar and Spain. 

The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the forecast for global rice exports in 2025 increased by 2,3 million tons to 56,3 million, slightly higher than the previous year's revised forecast and the second highest level on record. 

India’s 2025 export forecast is raised by 3,0 million tonnes to 21,0 million, while forecasts for Brazil, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam are lowered. The 2025 import forecast is upgraded for several countries with lower expected prices and greater export capacity than supply, with China, Nepal and the Philippines seeing the largest increases. 

Global rice production in 2024/25 is forecast by the US Department of Agriculture to reach a record 530,4 million tonnes, up 3,1 million tonnes from the previous forecast. India accounts for the bulk of the upward revision, with production forecasts also raised for Egypt, Guyana, Japan and Venezuela, but downgraded for the Philippines.

Global supplies (beginning stocks plus production) in 2024/25 are forecast to reach a record 710,3 million tonnes, up 5,6 million tonnes from the previous forecast due to higher inventories and forecasts for higher production. Global domestic use and remaining production in 2024/25 are forecast to reach a record 528 million tonnes, up 0,6 million tonnes from the previous forecast despite a 1,0 million to 120,0 million tonnes reduction in India’s forecast. Global ending stocks in 2024/25 are forecast to reach 182,2 million tonnes, up nearly 5,0 million tonnes from the previous forecast and the largest since 2021/22.

India accounted for the largest share of the increase, with India's ending stocks rising by 4,0 million tonnes to a record 43,0 million tonnes.

Over the past month, trading prices for most regular whole grain milled rice (non-white or fragrant) from Thailand have fallen by 10-13%, largely due to India’s suspension of its ban on non-basmati milled rice exports and larger global supplies. Quoted prices from Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar have also declined.