Leveraging Justice: Marcos Jr. Uses the ICC Probe to Challenge the ...

On 24 January 2025, a senior official from the current Philippine administration stated that it would “respond favorably” to an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest for former president Rodrigo Duterte over his role in the anti-drugs campaign carried out between 2016 and 2022. Previously, in November 2024, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that his administration would be obliged to apprehend the former leader if requested through the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) on behalf of the ICC.

This marks a significant shift in Marcos Jr.’s stance on the ICC probe, as the president had previously refused to assist in the investigation and denounced its perceived threat to the Philippines’ sovereignty. Notably, in January 2024, after unsuccessful attempts to suspend the investigation, Marcos Jr. declared that he would not “lift a finger” to support the ICC and would only permit its investigators to enter the Philippines as visitors.

Although Rodrigo Duterte formally withdrew the Philippines from the ICC in 2019, the country remains a member of Interpol. Through Interpol, the ICC can issue a “Red Notice” requesting global law enforcement to locate and temporarily arrest a suspect. Given the Philippines’ obligations to Interpol, the country is required to comply with any Red Notice made by Interpol, even those made on behalf of the ICC.

The ICC has also maintained jurisdiction over crimes committed while the Philippines was still a member, allowing investigations into Duterte to continue. After a three-month congressional hearing in October 2024, Duterte admitted to employing a “death squad” as part of his controversial crackdown on drugs. Estimates of deaths during Duterte’s war on drugs vary widely, but at least 6,252 extrajudicial killings were reported. Among the victims were approximately 130 children labeled as “collateral damage” who were killed between 2016 and 2020.

The president’s “revised stance” on the ICC investigation has mainly coincided with growing tensions between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties, particularly with the now impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of the former president. Furthermore, amid declining public support ahead of the May midterms, the president has increasingly politicized the ICC investigation to bolster his image as a defender of sovereignty and international law while pressuring the Duterte clan as they seek to regain political influence.

The upcoming midterm elections represent a pivotal opportunity for Marcos Jr. to address his waning domestic popularity and secure his legacy before his six-year term ends.

Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte, who formed a partnership that paved the way for their landslide victory in the 2022 presidential elections, have increasingly clashed. In June 2024, Duterte resigned from her positions as Secretary of Education and as the Vice Chairperson of an anti-insurgency task force. The rift further intensified in November when the vice president threatened to have the president and his family assassinated during a public broadcast should she be killed.

Additionally, with the midterm elections fast approaching, both families have attempted to consolidate their political base, further heightening tensions. In particular, the elections represent a pivotal opportunity for Marcos Jr. to address his waning domestic popularity and secure his legacy before his six-year term ends.

In October 2024, the president’s approval rating stood at 50 per cent — a notable decline from the 65 per cent approval rating held a year earlier — largely due to his administration’s failure to control rising inflation and improve the standard of living. The president’s trust ratings have also dropped, with a December 2024 survey showing that only 47 per cent of respondents trusted him. This was lower than the 49 per cent who indicated their trust in Sara Duterte who, at the time, had already faced several impeachment complaints over her alleged misuse of public funds.

Amid these challenges to the president’s authority, the ICC investigation into the senior Duterte has become a trump card for the Marcoses in re-asserting their dominance. By framing Rodrigo Duterte’s potential arrest as a fulfillment of the Philippines’ obligations to Interpol rather than direct support for the ICC, while linking it to Duterte’s own call for the ICC to “hurry up,” the president can escalate pressure on his rivals without explicitly endorsing the probe.  At the same time, Marcos Jr., whose family has its own history of human rights violations, has utilized the ICC investigation to enhance his image as a defender of Philippine sovereignty and the rule of law. This narrative, which resonates domestically while bolstering support from Western allies, is a means of establishing his personal legacy, distinct from his family’s. With the recent impeachment of Sara Duterte and the ongoing efforts to unseat the Duterte family in their Davao City stronghold, the looming threat of the ICC investigation serves as a persistent reminder of the president’s dominance. As the Philippines’ most powerful dynasties battle to secure seats in the midterm elections, the president may continue to utilize the ICC investigation as leverage against the Dutertes, showcasing how power remains firmly in the hands of the Marcoses — for now.

2025/63