What To Watch For in the Saudi Arabian GP

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Eighteen-year-old Ferrari reserve driver Oliver Bearman was set to race in Formula 2 on Friday – and start Saturday’s feature race from pole position – but was then called upon to replace the unwell Carlos Sainz, who required surgery on Friday morning due to appendicitis.

With just FP3 to get acclimatised, Bearman came within 0.04s of reaching Q3 on debut, and will start from 11th place. He drew huge praise from many of his peers, including Max Verstappen who was paying attention from his first laps and said he liked Bearman’s approach – but the next challenge is completing a full race distance.

Bearman did get a long run simulation during FP3, but after looking to get the most out of one single lap in qualifying he now needs to learn how to manage a full race, starting from the very middle of the grid.

Points would be an excellent return for the third-youngest driver to ever start a Grand Prix – and youngest to start one for Ferrari – but even just seeing the chequered flag would constitute a job well done.

2024 Saudi Arabian GP Qualifying: Ferrari sub Bearman just misses out on Q3 spot on F1 debut

2. Threats to Red Bull

The opening round in Bahrain marked Red Bull out as having a clear race pace advantage over the rest of the field – at the very least on that track layout.

There has been little to suggest that the situation will be any different in Jeddah, although there were some encouraging laps turned by Charles Leclerc during Thursday’s FP2 running – and Leclerc is once again a threat off the line after joining Verstappen on the front row for the fifth consecutive race.

READ MORE: Ferrari super-sub Bearman says missing Q3 in quali debut 'hurts' as Leclerc looks to ‘surprise’ Red Bulls in Saudi

Leclerc was unable to find a way past Verstappen into Turn 1 last weekend, but the pair of them put on a great show here two years ago and it remains to be seen how strong Leclerc’s race pace can be after brake system issues in Bahrain.

The other threat at the front comes from Fernando Alonso, who started second alongside Sergio Perez 12 months ago and took the lead at the start. This time around the pair again line-up alongside each other but on the second row, and although Alonso has been talking down Aston Martin’s race pace, he’s never been one to shy away from a battle when trophies are on offer.

3. McLaren’s race pace

Another driver talking down their race pace is Lando Norris, despite a strong qualifying performance that saw McLaren lock-out the third row.

Norris was pipped to fifth place by team mate Oscar Piastri, but when asked about prospects for the race he fears it might be difficult to find a way past Alonso ahead based on McLaren’s top speed.

RACE PREDICTOR: Vote for who you think will finish on the podium for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

The British driver suggested a higher-downforce set-up helped McLaren’s chances in qualifying but could penalise them in the race where they could lack top speed compared to their rivals.

There are a number of long DRS zones on the Jeddah Corniche Circuit that should help Norris and Piastri whenever they are attacking another car, but defending could be difficult if they’re struggling for top speed when the DRS is closed.

It’s a balancing act that all of the teams have been trying to perfect, and it will only become apparent whether anyone got it particularly right or wrong on race day.

4. Tsunoda chasing points for RB

If Norris’ prediction of a defensive race for McLaren comes true, then that could be encouraging news for Yuki Tsunoda, who goes in search of both his and his team’s first points of the season.

The two RB drivers were the focus of a disagreement in Bahrain, where Tsunoda was unhappy at being given team orders to move over for Daniel Ricciardo late on due to different strategies, and showed his displeasure after the finish.

READ MORE: Tsunoda admits he needs to control his emotions to be considered for Red Bull promotion after Ricciardo spat

On that occasion they were only fighting over a potential 12th place as the pair were bottled up behind Kevin Magnussen in the Haas, but here Tsunoda delivered a strong qualifying performance to secure a spot in Q3, and then beat Lance Stroll to ninth place.

The Mercedes drivers directly ahead of Tsunoda have been struggling to get the right set-up through the weekend but have a car that has looked to have better race pace than the RB. With Piastri and Norris ahead though, that group could remain within reach of Tsunoda, who will otherwise be looking to try and keep Stroll and Bearman at bay to remain in the points.

5. Safety Cars and incidents

All of the above topics are relevant regardless of whether there are any interruptions to the race or not, but this is a circuit where the Grand Prix can be turned on its head in an instant.

The high-speed nature of the layout and the walls that define the track limits provide an increased chance of contact, either between a car and a barrier or two drivers fighting it out on track with little room for error.

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The opening laps have seen incidents in the past, while there have been a number of Safety Car restarts already during the support races this weekend, as any collisions or stoppages can rarely be dealt with without needing to neutralise the race.

Red flags in both FP3 and qualifying are another example of the increased likelihood of an interruption, and not only would that tend to bunch the field up in racing conditions, that can also either make or break a driver’s strategy depending on the timing.