Have Liverpool really benefited from 'easy fixtures' in the Premier ...

Arne Slot has made light work of his early months on Merseyside, with tactical tweaks that have instilled a greater sense of control following the joyous chaos experienced under Jurgen Klopp.

Liverpool’s new head coach has had different challenges to overcome in the first half of his debut season, but the early narrative was that his side had not been truly tested in its opening weeks, a view that has certainly taken hold on social media in the months since.

“There are a lot of difficult teams we still have to face,” Slot said in late September.

“If we are able (to keep a good record) after playing those teams as well, let’s see where we are then […] because maybe the fixture schedule has been ‘nice’ to us when you see the league table.”

Using Opta’s Power Rankings — a global ranking system containing more than 13,000 clubs rated between zero (lowest) and 100 (highest) — to look at the strength of the opponents faced, Liverpool did indeed have the statistically easiest start to the 2024-25 Premier League across their first eight games.

An opening-weekend trip to newly-promoted Ipswich Town, plus visits to Crystal Palace, Wolves and Manchester United — three sides who were slow off the mark at the start of the season — were fixtures that most Liverpool fans would have hand-picked if given the option.

A home defeat to Nottingham Forest in the first match after the September international break was the only blot on an otherwise perfect record in this period, and that is a result that has proven to be less of a shock than it initially appeared given Forest’s current lofty position in the table almost four months on.

Ultimately, every club plays the other 19 twice in a season but there is something to be said about the momentum that can be built from a favourable start, particularly when it involves a new manager looking to get their feet under the table.

Whether such jubilance penetrates through the walls of the training ground is another story but narratives of a team’s success can be shaped by what happens in smaller sub-samples within a season.

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The four 'seasons' of the 2024-25 Premier League campaign so far

Have the stars aligned for Slot’s side in the fixture calendar? A dive into the context surrounding each of Liverpool’s opponents provides some interesting points of note.

Across their opening 18 Premier League games, only three teams had won in their previous league fixture – Brentford, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United. With so few sides able to build a consistent run of form, Liverpool have been the ones to capitalise.

Nottingham Forest are the only side to beat Liverpool in any competition this season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

In the trickier matches, the footballing gods have also smiled on Liverpool.

A 2-2 draw away to title rivals Arsenal came on an October day where Mikel Arteta’s side were without the injured Martin Odegaard and suspended William Saliba, and the latter’s fellow centre-back Gabriel was also forced off early in the second half. Their other journey to north London saw Tottenham without four of their starting back five, goalkeeper included, and Liverpool demolished Ange Postecoglou’s injury-ravaged side 6-3 just before Christmas. Sandwiched between those matches was Manchester City’s December 1 visit to Anfield. Arriving off the back of three straight Premier League defeats, the champions gave a toothless — and, pertinently, Rodri-less — display that Liverpool dominated, winning 2-0.

When Liverpool’s own squad was stretched, a postponed derby fixture away to Everton — due to Storm Darragh — in early December might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Slot. Liverpool would have been without Alisson, Conor Bradley, Ibrahima Konate, Kostas Tsimikas, Federico Chiesa, Diogo Jota (all injured) and Alexis Mac Allister (suspended) for that one. It’s unlikely they’ll be as weakened when the currently unscheduled game is finally played.

Liverpool’s postponed trip to play Everton at a time Slot’s side were understrength could prove to be fortunate (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

Judging a team’s approach based on game state — which tells you whether a side are in a losing, drawing or winning position when they are carrying out certain actions  — is commonplace in football, but this principle can also be extrapolated to look at “season state”. Essentially, how a team perform based on the wider context of the opponents, league table and wider football calendar.

Returning to the Opta Rankings, we can adjust the strength of the opposition faced to account for the time the game was played. It is not a perfect science, but allows us to uncover subtle differences that may exist in each side’s fixture schedule in the first half of the season.

Unsurprisingly, the results show minor variations but the spread does support the idea that Liverpool have played teams at opportune moments this season.

Liverpool now host Manchester United this weekend in a fixture that is typically viewed as a battle of equally-matched giants, filled with fierce competitiveness, palpable tension and genuine on-field peril.

This season feels different, however, even by United’s sub-par recent standards.

Ruben Amorim’s side are in relegation form ahead of tomorrow’s trip to Anfield, losing four of their past five league games to sit 14th in the table, just seven points above Ipswich, who are in the drop zone at 18th. Strip back the history and sentiment, and this edition of Liverpool vs United is really the league leaders against a struggling bottom-half team.

Unsurprisingly, Liverpool are the overwhelming favourites to come out on top, as shown by The Athletic’s new match predictions model.

This uses expected goals to create an attacking and defensive rating for each team, before simulating upcoming games — accounting for home advantage while giving more weight to recent performances. Using this model, Liverpool’s 69 per cent probability of victory matches the feeling of the majority and reflects the diverging success of the two sides under their respective new managers.

With Amorim still grappling to get a tune out of the squad he inherited from the sacked Erik ten Hag in the middle of November, this is arguably the best possible time for Liverpool to face United — continuing the theme that their fortunes keep being helped by the fading force of those who they come up against.

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Manchester United are now a sporting irrelevance for Liverpool

Let’s be clear, Liverpool are at the top of the Premier League on merit. They look as tactically strong as ever, and have dealt with their own injury issues. The fact that Alisson (two months), Jota (two months), and Konate (six weeks) have not been hugely missed from the starting XI is a testament to the performances of the players deputising for them and a sign of squad depth.

However, the cards do appear to have fallen in Slot’s favour over these opening months and it would be foolish not to play the hand he has been dealt.

Manchester United haven’t won any of their past eight league games at Anfield (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

Fast forward to the end of the season in May and Liverpool’s comparably easier start looks like being offset by a rather tricky finish — with Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal among their final five Premier League matches.

Though of course, some of those could be academic if Liverpool secure the title with games to spare.

Now is the time to maximise their momentum, kicking off 2025 against their historic north-west rivals tomorrow.

(Top photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)