UEFA Champions League quarterfinal odds, best bets: Picks for all ...

The quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League kick off this week, and we have a ton of unique betting value across the board. This is another year in which we have one side of the bracket that is considered to be substantially more difficult than the other, making decisions all the more difficult.

Here’s a look at some of the best bets I see across European action this week, including top scorer odds in the Champions League and some interesting ties in the Europa League. First, the behemoth of a matchup in the quarterfinals that starts Tuesday in Madrid.

All odds are from BetMGM.

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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

To advance: City -225, Madrid +165

There has been some natural regression for City this season with Erling Haaland underperforming his XG and carrying injuries. Despite that, he still tied for the most goals in the competition with six and still manages to get in great scoring positions even on his worst day.

This might scare some people off when it comes to picking Manchester City but the recent form that Phil Foden has been on makes this matchup all the more interesting. This version of Foden has been reaching conversations of a top 10 Ballon d’Or player. He has four goals and three assists in the Champions League while not being the main threat. He also has 21 goal contributions in the Premier League and almost every single time bettors go to place a wager, they go for Haaland. Foden in this first leg has odds of +230 to find the back of the net. Considering his red-hot form in the Premier League, he presents the best odds for me.

Both teams to score is too chalk for this match seeing as it hovers around -175. For me, City is still playing good football despite a shaky defense at times. Madrid has a fantastic defense in La Liga (conceding 20 goals in 30 matches), but has conceded in its past two home Champions League matches. Perhaps if Leipzig were more clinical we could have seen Madrid eliminated from this competition already.

It is rare to see an English club win at the Bernabeu but both teams to score and City to win is +310, which is a good enough number for me to bet.

Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich

To advance: Arsenal -175, Bayern +125

Arsenal might have the best defense in all of Europe in 2024 and faces a Bayern side that is plunging into a realm that we haven’t seen in quite some time. Morale is low for the German champions and their recent play will catch up to them in this matchup. After moving from -125 to -175 in one week, Arsenal is primed to advance to the next round of the competition. Arsenal hosts the first leg and I like Arsenal and over 1.5 goals, which comes out to +100.

PSG vs. Barcelona

To advance: PSG -135, Barcelona +100

Kylian Mbappe is winding down in his final matches for PSG with Real Madrid rumors continuing. Facing off against a very inconsistent Barcelona might be one of the best stories of the tournament. Imagine the revenge for PSG to beat the club that has tortured them in the past, while Mbappe eliminates his biggest rivals come next fall. Mbappe has carried PSG throughout the season with his fantastic goal record in France where the Parisians have a 12-point lead atop the league. This provides the focus for Barcelona manager Luis Enrique to rotate well for these matches.

15 – Paris will face Barcelona for the 14th and 15th time in European competition, making the Blaugrana the most frequent opponent PSG have faced on the continental stage. Habit. #UclDraw pic.twitter.com/t2QIIr3bbD

— OptaJean (@OptaJean) March 15, 2024

In this first leg in Paris, taking Mbappe as an anytime goalscorer (-130) would be wise considering he has scored in every home game in the competition this season.

Atlético Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund

To advance: Atlético -175, Dortmund +125

This matchup individually didn’t present anything interesting betting-wise, but I am excited by a parlay of who I think will advance in these quarterfinals. I like PSG, Atlético, Manchester City and Arsenal to all advance into the semifinals, which comes out to +520.

Earlier in the week I checked this number and it came in at +696, but after Bayern’s atrocious weekend we can fully expect the public to be on Arsenal.

Champions League top scorer

Mbappe (+250) is already tied for the most goals in the competition and a bet on him gives you the best player in the world for a decent value. His path to get to the final and play more matches than Haaland is certainly plausible given Manchester City is up against Real Madrid. We could see the Norwegian eliminated earlier than Mbappe.

If you were looking for another player outside the two favorites, Antoine Griezmann +600 presents the highest payout. Atlético’s matchup is favorable for the star Frenchmen. Dortmund has surrendered 87 shots in total with 33 being on target. It’s evident Atlético is going to have plenty of chances over two legs whilst also being the favorite in these ties, which leads to Griezmann having a solid chance of finishing as the top scorer.

Harry Kane doesn’t bring as much value to the table, considering he is going up against a stout Arsenal defense on top of Bayern’s massive struggles in all competitions.

Bonus Europa League parlay

PSG to advance and AC Milan to advance +186

Pairing PSG to advance (-135) with Milan (-155) to beat Roma in its Europa League quarterfinal comes in at a respectable number. Milan has not lost to Roma in Serie A for nine matches. The Rossoneri have been on a fantastic stretch of games whilst returning most of their injured squad.

Roma has financial concerns heading into this summer and must make the Champions League for next season. Considering how close the Giallorossi are to the top four in Serie A, that will probably be the priority for the club over Europa League. I am not implying that Roma can’t beat Milan, but Roma has been considerably outplayed by the Rossoneri nearly every match in recent years. With Milan’s fresh rotations and Rafael Leão firing on all cylinders with Christian Pulisic, the Rossoneri will have too much firepower throughout two matches. I think -155 is a really solid number considering how one-sided this matchup has been. I also see value in Leão goal or assist wagers, which are around +105 depending on where you look.

(Photo of Antoine Griezmann: Florencia Tan Jun / Getty Images)