Europa League Predictions: Liverpool Favourites to Succeed in Dublin

Who will win the Europa League in 2023-24? We check in with the Opta supercomputer to see its latest UEFA Europa League predictions.

9 April

We have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League, but which clubs are backed as the favourites by the Opta supercomputer?

Who Will Win the Europa League? The Quick Hits

• Liverpool face Atalanta in the quarter-finals and are the current favourites to lift the trophy in Dublin in May, doing so in 35.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
• Bayer Leverkusen are second favourites, ahead of Italian giants Milan.
• West Ham are the reigning Europa Conference League champions, but have just a 4.3% chance of adding the Europa League this season.

Liverpool

Their dream of a quadruple may be over, and their chances of winning the Premier League have fallen following Sunday’s 2-2 draw at Manchester United, but Liverpool remain favourites to win the Europa League in Jürgen Klopp’s final season at the club.

It would be somewhat appropriate given it is the one major trophy that has eluded the German in his eight and a half years on Merseyside, having lost 3-1 in the final to Sevilla in his first season at Liverpool in 2015-16.

Liverpool have scored 28 goals in eight Europa League matches this season – in only two previous major European campaigns have they scored 30+ goals, doing so in 2017-18 (41) and 2021-22 (30). They have also had the most shots on target (63) in the competition this season.

The Reds face Serie A side Atalanta in the quarter-finals, with the first leg on Thursday at Anfield. They have only lost one of their 25 home matches in the Europa League (W19 D5 L1), losing 3-2 to another Italian opponent in Udinese in October 2012. Liverpool have won their last nine in a row on home soil in the competition, though, with Ajax the last side to win 10 in a row at home (between 2016 and 2021).

Harvey Elliott could be a key player for Klopp’s men. He has assisted four goals in his last two Europa League appearances for Liverpool. The only Englishman to assist five goals in a Europa League season was Bukayo Saka in 2019-20 for Arsenal.

Bayer Leverkusen

Xabi Alonso has done an amazing job with Bayer Leverkusen, proven by the fact that a team nicknamed ‘Neverkusen’ for famously missing out on winning trophies are considered likelier to win the Europa League than European giants like Milan, Benfica and Roma.

Among managers to take charge of at least 15 games in the Europa League, only Diego Simeone (81%, P26 W21) has a better win ratio than Alonso (69%, P16 W11), while his Leverkusen side are averaging 2.4 goals per game (38 goals in 16 games), giving him the best record of any manager with 15+ games in the competition.

Patrik Schick has scored in each of his last four Europa League appearances for Bayer Leverkusen, hitting five goals, with four coming as a substitute. Only Rodrigo Palacio in 2012-13 for Inter (5) has ever scored more goals as a sub in a Europa League season, while Ulf Kirsten is the only Leverkusen player to score in five consecutive major European appearances, doing so twice (5 in 1993-94 and in 1998-99).

Their home form could be crucial. Leverkusen have won all four of their Europa League matches at the BayArena this season, scoring 3+ goals in each match (17 in total). The only team in the competition’s history to win five in a row and score 3+ goals in each game were Chelsea in 2018-19, while no German side has ever scored more than 17 goals at home in a Europa League campaign.

Leverkusen – who face West Ham in the quarter-finals – are given a 23.9% chance of winning the Europa League by the Opta supercomputer. They have a 72.2% chance of getting past their Premier League opponents, and would play either Milan or Roma in the semi-finals.

Milan

Like Liverpool, Milan have plenty of European Cups/Champions Leagues to their name, but now it’s all about the Europa League after dropping out of the Champions League in the group stage, and the Rossoneri will be eager to go all the way.

They have done well to force their way into second place in Serie A, but remain 14 points behind leaders and rivals Inter with seven games remaining, so another Scudetto seems somewhat unlikely.

Milan have a 13.9% chance of winning the Europa League according to the supercomputer’s latest round of 10,000 simulations, but will have to overcome another Serie A rival to advance further after being drawn against Roma in the quarter-finals.

Having reached the Champions League semi-finals last season, Milan have made it to the last eight of a major European competition in consecutive seasons for the first time since doing so six seasons on the bounce between 2001-02 and 2006-07.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek won this competition with Chelsea in 2018-19. The English midfielder has been involved in 11 goals in his 15 Europa League appearances (8 goals, 3 assists), netting four in four for Milan this season. Loftus-Cheek could become just the second English player to score 5+ goals in a major European campaign for an Italian side, along with Tammy Abraham in 2021-22 for Roma (9).

Benfica

Roger Schmidt’s side suffered a blow domestically at the weekend when they lost to title rivals Sporting CP. Rúben Amorim’s men are four points ahead of them in the Primeira Liga with just six games remaining, so the Europa League could be their best chance of silverware.

They overcame Rangers in the last 16, drawing 2-2 at home before a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Ibrox thanks to Rafa Silva’s 66th-minute goal.

Benfica’s Ángel Di María has been directly involved in six goals in his last five major European appearances (4 goals, 2 assists), although it has been 12 years since Di María scored in a major European quarter-final, last doing so for Real Madrid against APOEL Nicosia in April 2012 the Champions League.

Benfica face Marseille in the quarter-finals, with Liverpool or Atalanta awaiting in the final four for the victors. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 61.3% chance of advancing, a 19.1% possibility of getting past the semis, and a 7.8% chance of winning the whole thing.

The Lisbon side will fancy their chances of getting a positive result at home at least. They have never lost a home match in the Europa League in 28 previous games (W21 D7), failing to score just once – in a 0-0 draw with Galatasaray in February 2019.

Atalanta

Atalanta have reached their fifth major European quarter-final and their third in the last five seasons. However, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side went out in both of the previous two (2019-20 vs Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League and 2021-22 vs RB Leipzig in the Europa League).

They face Liverpool in the last eight, the competition favourites according to the supercomputer. That could be why La Dea have only been handed a 6.9% chance of winning the Europa League; they only get past Liverpool in 27.0% of simulations.

Atalanta did beat Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League in 2020, while their last Europa League match against an English team was a 5-1 hammering of the Reds’ neighbours Everton at Goodison Park in November 2017.

Aleksey Miranchuk has assisted in each of his last three Europa League appearances for Atalanta (four in total), now his joint-most assists in a season in the competition (also four for Lokomotiv Moscow in 2017-18). He is also one of four players to assist 4+ goals in a Europa League season for two different clubs, along with Juan Mata (Chelsea and Man Utd), Lior Refaelov (Royal Antwerp and Club Brugge) and Mesut Özil (Werder Bremen and Arsenal).

Roma

Last season’s Europa League runners-up are back for more, and face a familiar foe in the last eight when they meet Milan.

The Opta supercomputer sees the Giallorossi as sixth favourites, in part due to the fact they face the third favourites in the quarter-finals.

Roma won the Europa Conference League in 2021-22 before following it up with the Europa League last season, but they no longer have European trophy magnet José Mourinho in charge.

However, Daniele De Rossi has taken the reins now and has given Roma a boost since his arrival in mid-January. They have won nine, drawn four and lost two in all competitions, including getting past Feyenoord and Brighton in the last two rounds of the Europa League.

Roma’s Stephan El Shaarawy has five assists in nine Europa League appearances this season, having managed just one in 29 games before this season. He’s both the only Roma player and the only Italian player to assist five goals in a Europa League campaign.

West Ham

Like Roma, West Ham are looking to follow up winning a European trophy last season with another. The 2022-23 Europa Conference League winners have a tough task ahead, though.

David Moyes’ men will take on runaway Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen in the quarter-finals, though they do have recent experience of dismantling German opposition.

West Ham lost 1-0 away at Freiburg in the last 16, before thrashing them 5-0 back at London Stadium in the return leg.

They are handed just a 4.3% chance of going all the way by the supercomputer, while the Hammers only advance past Leverkusen in 27.8% of simulations.

If they are to do so, Mohammed Kudus will likely have to be at the top of his game. The former Ajax man has scored five goals in each of his last two major European campaigns (5 for Ajax in 2022-23, 5 for West Ham this season). Kudus is also only the third Ghanaian player to score 10+ goals in major European competitions, along with Tony Yeboah (17) and Michael Essien (11).

Marseille

Last but not least are Marseille, who will face Benfica in the quarter-finals. Jean-Louis Gasset’s side are having a strange 2024 so far. From 12 January, they failed to win any of their next seven games in all competitions (D5 L2); they then won five in a row, but have lost four in a row since.

They came close to blowing a four-goal advantage in the last 16 against Villarreal, going 3-0 down in the return leg before Jonathan Clauss sealed the Ligue 1 side’s place in the quarters with a 94th-minute goal.

Marseille’s Amine Harit has created the most chances (24), the most chances in open play (23), the most chances following a ball carry (12) and has the most open play assists (6) in the Europa League this season. No player has ever assisted more than six open-play goals in a Europa League campaign.

In Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang they also have the current top scorer in the competition, both this season (9) and all-time (33). With the former Arsenal man in the side, Marseille may think the 2.6% chance of winning the Europa League is a little harsh. Their 38.7% likelihood of getting past Benfica may give them more room for optimism.

Only Liverpool (28) have scored more Europa League goals this season than Marseille (24), with the French side having the best expected goal total (19.8). It’s the most goals OM have scored in a major European season, with PSG the last French team to score more goals in a campaign (25 in 2019-20).

How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?

• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each position to create our final predictions.

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